Last August, we ran a little experiment: take Yahoo’s fantasy football Top 100, lay it against real PSA 10 Prizm Silver rookie card sales, and see where the fantasy market and the hobby market actually agreed. A year later, we are back with more numbers and a better picture of how fantasy success impacts card prices.
When we ran this exercise against the new 2026-27 preseason Top 100, we were finally able to measure how every card actually moved over a 12-month span. To make things even more interesting, we layered in PSA’s population counts. Why? Because a $100 price tag on a card with exactly four Gem Mints in existence means something completely different than a $100 price tag on a slab with a pop count of 900. The result is a much clearer picture of where the hobby is outrunning fantasy value, where it is lagging behind, and where pure scarcity is quietly driving prices.
Quarterbacks: Welcome to a Different Planet
If last year taught us that quarterbacks operate on a completely different planet from the rest of the hobby, this year’s data doubles down. There is no better bet than QBs who perform well, especially the blue chips.
Take Josh Allen, for example. His Prizm Silver PSA 10 skyrocketed from $5,100 to an insane $11,000, a massive 116% jump. The kicker? There are only 27 Gem Mint copies in existence. Lamar Jackson wasn’t far behind, climbing from $3,300 to $5,900 (+79%) on a similarly tight pop count of just 30. These two sit in a scarcity tier that almost nobody else at the position touches; every other rookie-era QB in this Top 100 has a pop count in the hundreds or low thousands.
Despite missing nine games last season, Joe Burrow’s high-level fantasy performance when healthy kept his card market remarkably stable, holding steady at $1,850 (+9%). Meanwhile, Justin Herbert saw a solid increase, climbing from $1,000 to $1,400 (+40%) with a pop of 217. The 2024 rookie QB class just kept climbing, as well. Caleb Williams jumped from $694 to $1,400 (+102%), but the biggest dollar-for-dollar mover in this group was Drake Maye, who rocketed from $458 to $1,100 (+140%).
On the flip side, Jayden Daniels actually cooled off, sliding 21% to $960. It’s a sobering reminder the effect an injury can have, even a unanimous Rookie of the Year.
The Elite Consistency: Top 10 Dominance
Before we dive into the rest of the skill positions, it is worth looking at the absolute top of the mountain. One of the most glaring takeaways from this year’s spreadsheet is that the top 10 ranked fantasy football players all saw double-digit percentage growth in their Prizm Silver PSA 10 rookies. Every single one. From Jahmyr Gibbs (+108%) to CeeDee Lamb (+32%) to Amon-Ra St. Brown (+13%), collectors correctly identified that putting money behind the guaranteed fantasy stalwarts was a safe place to park hobby capital over the last 12 months.
Wide Receivers: The King, The Breakout, and The Absurd
Justin Jefferson is still the undisputed King of the wide receivers, holding completely flat at a $500 average. CeeDee Lamb (+32%, up to $300) and Ja’Marr Chase (+23%, up to $240) both climbed, with Lamb’s incredibly tight population of 71 making his slab the scarcest non-QB card in our top 15.
But the real story here is Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Ranked 7th overall in fantasy, his Prizm Silver went from a modest $62 to $225—an absolutely absurd 263% increase. That makes him the largest true breakout in this year’s dataset. Even with a pop of 455, supply simply hasn’t kept up with the demand following his league-leading 2025 season. Puka Nacua nearly doubled too (+98%, to $170), despite sitting on a massive pop of 912. When a card that common moves that much, it speaks volumes about collector conviction.
On the value side, Chris Olave more than doubled (+133%) off a rock-bottom base to hit $70, making him an absolute steal for a top-30 fantasy asset. However, not every “value buy” pans out. Last year, we flagged Nico Collins as a steal, but his card actually went down 11% to $80.
Running Backs: Closing the Discount Gap
Let’s be honest: running backs are still the discount aisle of the hobby. They have a $100.70 mean and a $60 median sale price, making them the cheapest position for the second year in a row.
But the gap is closing fast for the true stars. Jahmyr Gibbs (+108%), Jonathan Taylor (+150%), and James Cook (+168%) posted some of the biggest percentage gains in our entire dataset. Derrick Henry remains the outright price king at $420 (+53%), proving the “legend tax” is very real, even in year 11.
Bijan Robinson nearly doubled to $170, but that’s still a fraction of what you’d pay for Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson with similar draft capital. Robinson remains the biggest “what-if” in the running back market. Meanwhile, Kyren Williams is completely flat at $20 for the second straight year despite rock-solid production. It’s the most glaring discount on the board.
Tight Ends: Sleeping Giants?
Tight ends earned their own section this year, and for good reason. Brock Bowers and rookie Colston Loveland both sit exactly at $200, but for entirely different reasons. Bowers has a massive pop count of 1,125 (mass demand matching mass supply), while Loveland sits at a tiny pop of just 13, a true rookie short-print premium.
The ultimate sleeper might be Trey McBride. He’s priced at just $80, has arguably the best tight end profile in the league, and his Prizm Silver PSA 10 pop count is exactly two. He is tied with running back Omarion Hampton for the scarcest card in the entire Top 100.
The Scarcity vs. Brand Battle
When you cross-reference population counts with prices, you find the real inefficiencies in the market. Among top-60 fantasy players, the scarcest slabs are Omarion Hampton (Pop 2, $155), Trey McBride (Pop 2, $80), DJ Moore (Pop 4, $100), Quinshon Judkins (Pop 6, $55), and Chris Olave / Kyren Williams (Pop 8).
Kyren Williams is the card you have to circle. An elite pop of 8, high fantasy relevance, and you can pick him up for just $20? If you can find it that is. There is a really opportunity here to buy his Silver Prizm Rookie for $3 and grade it. That is exactly the kind of disconnect this exercise was built to find.
On the flip side, sometimes a player’s brand is so massive that supply simply doesn’t matter. Dak Prescott’s card has the largest population in our dataset at 1,610 copies, yet it still climbed 83% to $220. Christian McCaffrey (Pop 1,451, $190), Caleb Williams (Pop 960, $1,400), and Drake Maye (Pop 1,029, $1,100) all follow this pattern. When a name is big enough, especially a QB, thousands of graded copies just makes the card more liquid and desirable.
Finding the Value: The Injury & Trouble Discounts
If you are looking for where the hobby zigged while fantasy output zagged, the best opportunity overall might be players who had significant injuries in 2025. Guys like Bucky Irving (-34%), Sam LaPorta (-18%), Marvin Harrison Jr. (-19%), Brian Thomas Jr. (-44%), and Jayden Daniels (-21%) all saw stark declines in their YoY pricing. Yet, all of them are still ranked in the top 100 fantasy players ahead of the 2026 season. Buying into this dip represents a significant opportunity if they return to form and stay on the field.
Or, if your risk, or moral, tolerance is a bit higher, you could see opportunity in players who had off-the-field troubles. Collectors often dump cards of players facing suspensions or legal noise, pushing prices down on guys like Jordan Addison and Rashee Rice (down 20% to $40), creating a purely speculative buy-low window.
The Year-Over-Year Scoreboard
Here are the biggest gainers and losers from the last 12 months for players priced in both years. (Note: If you dig into the raw data, Michael Wilson quietly jumped an astronomical 450% from $10 to $55, but among the higher-end slabs, these are the major movers).
Biggest Gainers
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba: $62 → $225 (+263%)
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James Cook: $41 → $110 (+168%)
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Jonathan Taylor: $76 → $190 (+150%)
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Drake Maye: $458 → $1,100 (+140%)
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Chris Olave: $30 → $70 (+133%)
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Josh Allen: $5,100 → $11,000 (+116%)
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Jahmyr Gibbs: $106 → $220 (+108%)
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Caleb Williams: $694 → $1,400 (+102%)
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Puka Nacua: $86 → $170 (+98%)
Biggest Decliners
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Jameson Williams: $116 → $65 (-44%)
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Brian Thomas Jr.: $142 → $80 (-44%)
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Bucky Irving: $68 → $45 (-34%)
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DK Metcalf: $74 → $50 (-32%)
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Blake Corum: $80 → $60 (-25%)
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Jayden Daniels: $1,215 → $960 (-21%)
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Rashee Rice: $50 → $40 (-20%)
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Marvin Harrison Jr.: $129 → $105 (-19%)
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Sam LaPorta: $49 → $40 (-18%)
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Nico Collins: $90 → $80 (-11%)
The Big Picture
Two years into tracking this data, the playbook is pretty clear. If you want a safe place to park your hobby capital, top-performing fantasy quarterbacks are still your best bet. The elite QBs live in a different stratosphere, and as long as they produce on the field, their cards will keep climbing. But the rest of the market is evolving. Running backs who can actually sustain success are starting to close the price gap on receivers, proving that collectors will pay up for backfield consistency.
Tracking population counts remains the ultimate cheat code for finding market inefficiencies. If you can hunt down Prizm Silver rookie slabs for under $50, especially low-pop guys sitting in the top 100 rankings, you are staring at a real opportunity.
As for this year’s incoming rookie class, guys like Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, Carnell Tate, and Jordyn Tyson, keep a close watch on how they transition to the league. Just keep in mind that with the shifting hobby landscape, their Topps Chrome Refractors will actually be the better play over Prizm Silvers. Regardless of which parallel you target, the rule holds true: any rookie who breaks out and finishes inside the Top 100 fantasy rankings this year is going to be a prime buy ahead of next season. Do your homework, check the pop reports, and grab the value before the rest of the market catches on.
Who are you picking up ahead of the NFL season? Let us know
